FIRST ALERT FORECAST: Hurricane Ida moving across the Gulf, rapid strengthening likely until landfall - KPLC

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Lake Charles, LA (KPLC) - The big story remains Hurricane Ida with major impacts ahead to the state of Louisiana. As of 7 a.m. Ida is located in the Gulf, 385 miles south-southeast of the Mouth of Mississippi River and has winds of 85 mph and Ida is moving northwest at 16 mph. Ida is moving over the very warm waters of the Gulf and will likely strengthen quickly through Sunday. In fact, the National Hurricane Center shows Ida making landfall as a very dangerous category 4 hurricane with winds of 140 mph! Thankfully the track has not changed much at all and likely will remain just east of Southwest Louisiana.

The models continue to handle the track very well and even with new data from the Gulfstream IV jet the forecast did not change. That adds confidence that the models have the atmosphere handled well and hopefully the forecast for Ida handled well too. The major issue is the strength of high pressure east of Florida; Ida will ride along the edge of the high. A stronger high would mean a more westerly track, whereas a weaker high would mean a more easterly track. The farther west the system tracks the more impacts Southwest Louisiana could see and vice versa with a more easterly track meaning less impacts. That jet will continue flying missions every 12 hours for as long as Ida is a threat, and this should keep the models supplied with needed data.

Ida nearing landfall Sunday afternoon(KPLC)

A whole host of watches and warnings are in effect for SWLA including a Hurricane Watch from Cameron to Intracoastal City, and a Hurricane Warning east of Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Pearl River. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from the Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge east to the Mississippi/Alabama border. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City to Cameron.

For now impacts are not likely to be severe for SWLA, though any westward shift would bring worse conditions to our area. And please plan to monitor the forecast closely as a westward shift is my greatest fear! Wind would be the primary threat with sustained winds of 50 to 60 across Jeff Davis and possible eastern Cameron; the rest of SWLA would likely be more in the 30 to 50 mph range. We will likely see rain bands move across the area and when heavy rain occurs that could cause higher gusts, possibly to near hurricane force especially over eastern Cameron and Jeff Davis Parishes. Storm Surge is not likely to be a major issue with landfall east of our area, but eastern Cameron could see a surge of a few feet especially closer to the Vermilion line. Tides will likely run a few feet higher than normal and this could cause some localized flooding in the normal spots of Cameron Parish. Isolated tornadoes are always a threat with tropical systems, but they are most likely on the east side not the west; though a few are possible for our area.

The National Hurricane Center issues a product called the probability of tropical storm force winds and probability of hurricane force winds. And it is really a good measuring too to watch how those percentages change over time. A decrease means the confidence is growing that the threat is decreasing; and an increase in those percentages means the confidence is growing that those conditions will be felt. And the probability of hurricane force winds has remained in the 10-20 percent range for all of SWLA since Thursday. The odds of tropical storm force winds have increased into the 60-80 percent range. And that is why I have highlighted the possibility of winds in excess of 40 mph for most of SWLA.

So here is the bottom-line: Southwest Louisiana is partially in the forecast cone of a major hurricane, and we should be preparing for that now. However model trends have been going in a positive direction for us with tracks farther east. Unfortunately, that is not set in stone just yet, hopefully nothing changes today. It looks very likely that south-central or southeastern Louisiana will see a major hurricane, possible the strongest since Andrew in 1992.

Make sure to stay tuned to the 7Stormteam as we will continue to bring the latest forecast and updates through the weekend on air and online. Hopefully we can continue a good trend to the east, but we will monitor the system as it approaches. Download the First Alert Weather App to track the latest on the storm as well as our afternoon storms the next few days.

Chief Meteorologist Wade Hampton

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FIRST ALERT FORECAST: Hurricane Ida moving across the Gulf, rapid strengthening likely until landfall - KPLC
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FIRST ALERT FORECAST: Hurricane Ida moving across the Gulf, rapid strengthening likely until landfall - KPLC

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