Polish President Andrzej Duda is seeking a second five-year term.
Photo: Omar Marques/Getty ImagesWARSAW—Poland’s President Andrzej Duda won the first round of an election on Sunday, but without the simple majority he needed to avoid a runoff, as turnout broke quarter-century-old records in the European Union’s first national election since the coronavirus pandemic swept the continent.
Mr. Duda won 42% of the vote, according to exit polls published by independent broadcaster TVN, in an election in which authorities weren’t sure how many voters would brave Covid-19 to cast ballots. Some 63% of eligible voters ultimately showed up, the highest such participation since 1995, when the country was only a few years removed from Communism. In lines that stretched around schools and churches, face-masked voters stood meters apart, obeying precautionary measures, and bringing their own pens to avoid any hand-to-hand contact.
The mayor of Warsaw, Rafał Trzaskowski, of the centrist-liberal Civic Platform party, won 30% of the vote, according to exit polls. Mr. Duda—backed by the country’s ruling party, the nationalist-conservative Law and Justice—will face him in a July 12 runoff, with head-to-head polls currently showing a statistical tie.
“This advantage is immense, and I am very grateful,” said Mr. Duda, speaking into a crowd that drowned him out in chants of “This is Poland!”
The surreal scene of voters donning surgical gloves to check ballot papers offered a preview of what other Western democracies could experience in their own elections. Throughout the campaign, the pandemic instilled a sense of danger into the essential rituals of electioneering: handshakes, cheering crowds and constant travel. Presidential candidates who were confined to their apartments live-streamed videos and complained that their opponent, the incumbent, was free to make public appearances in his capacity as the country’s head of state.
Facing a frustrated electorate, President Duda isn’t guaranteed a second five-year term. Poland’s government has registered just 1,438 deaths from Covid-19—a relatively mild caseload. Like its Central and Eastern European neighbors, Poland was quick to mandate masks and imposed a two-month lockdown in March. The country has averaged fewer than 300 infections a day during the past week. Its economy, while expected to shrink this year, is one of Europe’s least affected.
Still, voters once isolated in their homes are emerging from several painful months of job losses. Opinion surveys show most Poles don’t believe authorities were truthful about the pandemic, as instructions shifted over months of chaotic lockdowns. Beyond coronavirus, Poland has been an increasingly polarized country over the past five years, with Mr. Trzaskowski’s Civic Platform party shifting to the left on social issues like LGBT rights, while Mr. Duda’s allies pursued a Catholic-conservative vision that views Poland as a last bastion of traditional values.
Given the polarization, Mr. Duda will face a considerable challenge finding the swing votes he needs to secure a second term, said Anna Materska-Sosnowska, a political scientist at the University of Warsaw.
“It is not a good situation for the president and it will be very difficult for him to win new voters,” she said. “The polarization is visible and deepening to such extent that we were expecting a rather high turnout.”
Presidential candidate Rafał Trzaskowski casts his ballot.
Photo: Czarek Sokolowski/Associated PressA defeat for Mr. Duda would represent a significant blow for Europe’s nationalist movements, for whom Poland and nearby Hungary serve as models for how to cement power in a Western democracy. With Mr. Duda’s backing, the Law and Justice party, which controls parliament, has purged liberal judges from the courts, and turned state media into a nightly broadcaster of once-fringe conspiracy views and denunciations of cosmopolitan elites. Mr. Duda, nominally independent, supports the party, which endorses him. If Mr. Trzaskowski wins, his presidential veto would stymie any further Law and Justice changes.
“This result shows 58% of the society wants a change,” said Mr. Trzaskowski, in between chants of “we will win” from supporters. “And I will be your candidate for change.”
The election’s voting blocs ran down what have become familiar fault lines for Poland, and more broadly for Europe. Mr. Trzaskowski drew support from younger, more educated and urban voters—as well as those in the country’s historically more developed west, dubbed “Polska A,” or Poland A. Mr. Duda looked for strong turnout from older, Catholic-conservative voters—especially in Poland’s more rural and blue-collar east, or “Polska B.”
People wait to vote in a socially distanced line in Sopot, Poland.
Photo: mateusz slodkowski/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images
Poland’s national election was the EU’s first since the coronavirus pandemic began.
Photo: wojtek radwanski/Agence France-Presse/Getty ImagesThe vote was also a gauge of President Trump’s clout among Poles, after Mr. Trump hosted Mr. Duda at the White House on Wednesday. Mr. Trump, who has been broadly popular in Poland, lauded the Polish incumbent and predicted a positive result during the visit. Mr. Duda’s allies were counting on the last-minute intervention to turn the tide in what has become a close race.
“He’s doing a terrific job; the people of Poland think the world of him,” Mr. Trump said.
Write to Drew Hinshaw at drew.hinshaw@wsj.com
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