Considering Andrew Vaughn‘s only documented professional experience before this season topped out at 126 decent plate appearances for Winston-Salem in 2019, you have to be impressed with the way he’s earned greater responsibilities in left field.
Vaughn started the season slow, although in part because he didn’t have chances to make up the early deficit thanks to Tony La Russa’s careful allotment of playing time. But thanks to Vaughn’s confidence-inspiring play, a severe injury to Luis Robert, Adam Engel‘s rehab setbacks and lesser-but-present issues with Adam Eaton‘s legs, Vaughn became an everyday starter by the first week of May.
And now we’re starting to see some of the effects of overexposure …
- April: .255/.364/.362, 12.7% BB, 30.9% K over 55 plate appearances
- May: .200/.292/.364, 9.2% BB, 24.6% K over 65 plate appearances
… and potential weaknesses against which the White Sox were guarding.
It speaks to Vaughn’s talents that even the May line isn’t without merit, as he’s cut his strikeout rate to below the 25 percent mark that’s respectable for a hitter with power. But the empty at-bats are largely backloaded this month, as he went 3-for-26 with zero walks and 11 strikeouts over the most recent Kansas City and Minnesota series. Two of those hits came in the White Sox’s 16-run explosion on Monday, the one where Minnesota sent lefty J.A. Happ back for more punishment and all the Sox bats put the “laughter” in “slaughter.”
The biggest issue is platoon splits, which look like those of a typical lefty-masher and don’t help the White Sox’s team-wide issue against merely decent right-handed starters.
- vs. RHP: .197/.267/.276, 6 BB, 24 K over 86 PA
- vs. LHP: .308/.471/.615, 7 BB, 9 K over 34 PA
When La Russa had the luxury of picking spots for Vaughn, the starts against righties came in games where Vaughn naturally stood a better chance. Vaughn has enjoyed no such curation in May, and now it’s a little easier to see why La Russa was conservative in his April deployment:
- April vs. RHP: .255/.364/.362 over 55 PA
- May vs. RHP: .171/.235/.268 over 47 PA
Vaughn ended his April with a whimper, going 0-for-3 with two strikeouts against Shane Bieber. He didn’t get a fourth at-bat because Tony La Russa didn’t want him to face flame-throwing Cleveland righty Emmanuel Clase.
While it’s no crime to have a bad night against Bieber, the way the defending Cy Young winner attacked Vaughn set the template for right-handed pitchers the next month. None of Bieber’s 11 pitches were even inner half, much less inside. Eight of them were sliders, half of which got swinging strikes. When the ninth inning rolled around, it wasn’t a bad idea to sit Vaughn against a closer who throws 101-mph cutters away. Replacing him with Leury García when he represented the tying run was the mistake.
Most righties have followed Bieber’s example since, although fortunately most of them don’t have Bieber’s stuff. Comparing May to April, Vaughn is seeing a big increase in sliders from righties month over month, going from 29 percent in April to 39 percent in May. He’s also seeing a shift in where righties direct their fastballs. The standard playbook is fastballs inside, breaking balls away, but the fastballs are now staying outer half and beyond as well.
APRIL 2021
MAY 2021
And when you include all non-fastballs from right-handed pitchers, you’ll see what he’s going to have to learn to cover in his next batch of adjustments. Here’s the pitch chart from the last two series, over which he’s 3-for-26.
This most recent seven-game stretch we’re discussing started with Brad Keller striking out Vaughn on five pitches, none of which flirted with the inside corner.
And Vaughn saw the most severe example on Tuesday, when Alex Colomé fell behind 3-0 all on pitches away, and after pouring in a strike on a take, resumed throwing fastballs away. Vaughn could barely touch them.
The good news is that Vaughn doesn’t usually look as overwhelmed as he did in these extreme examples. There are a number of at-bats that end after his first or second swing, when he tries to pounce on a location/pitch type he’s anticipating. The problem right now is that most of this contact is going into the ground. A lot of the batted balls come off the bat with some heat, but the lack of lift is why you’re seeing the disparity between Vaughn’s average exit velocity (an impressive 90th percentile) and his production (an unimpressive .688 OPS).
The White Sox open a stretch of 18 games over 17 days tonight in New York against lefty Jordan Montgomery, but he’ll be followed by Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon. After that, the White Sox return to Chicago to face St. Louis and the Cardinals’ righty-heavy rotation. Glass half full, Vaughn will get plenty of chances to work on his weakness, and he seems to possess the natural strength and hitting prowess to overcome it in relatively short order. Glass half empty, La Russa might run out some ugly outfield combinations if Vaughn looks more and more like a guy who didn’t face competitive pitching above A-ball before this year. Hopefully Leury García will continue to look like a guy who won’t inspire so much anger if and when he’s the one coming to the plate instead.
(Photo by Kamil Krzaczynski / USA TODAY Sports)
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The first adjustments to Andrew Vaughn are here, away - Sox Machine
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