How the Panthers can trade down in the first round (TWICE!) and win the draft (Part 2) - Cat Scratch Reader

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In Part 1 of this series I outlined how the Panthers could trade back twice in the first round and end up swapping the No. 8 pick for No. 25, No. 56, and No. 76 this year along with a first round pick in the 2022 draft that I’m going to project coming in as No. 20. Let’s take a look at how recent No. 8 picks have panned out when compared to the other four picks that could be obtained by trading down. For those of us who live on Trade Down Island, I don’t think the conclusion will be a surprise.

I’ve devised my own subjective evaluation system of putting each player into one of five general categories: elite (bright green), above average (green), average starter (yellow), reserve (light red), and fringe player (dark red). We can probably quibble about how a couple of guys are classified, but this is at least directionally correct.

And when comparing to the No. 8 pick to the trade down package the Panthers could hypothetically obtain by trading down - twice - in the first round, it’s pretty clear which strategy wins.

2011 winner: Trade down package, easy

No. 8 pick Jake Locker quickly flamed out. Meanwhile, rosters can be strengthened though not transformed with guys like Adrian Clayborn, James Carpenter, and Shane Vereen. The 2011 draft is a good reminder that picking players is nothing more than educated guesswork as none of these five players went on to have anything more than just average careers.

2012 winner: Trade down package, but Tannehill’s solid

Ryan Tannehill was a low-end average quarterback for six years with the Dolphins, and he’s been downright good over the last two years with the Titans. Tannehill is in an ideal system in Tennessee that only requires him to make good decisions, avoid turnovers, and pass for about 230 yards per game without being a hero, and he’s a good fit. But a late-blooming system quarterback like Tannehill isn’t enough to justify passing on a three-time Pro Bowl guard in Brandon Brooks, a solid linebacker in Dont’a Hightower, and a capable wide receiver in Kendall Wright.

2013 winner: Trade down package in a landslide

This one’s a blowout. Tavon Austin began his career with some promise by registering 1,642 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns over his first four seasons, but over the last four seasons he has produced just 384 yards. On the flip side, Kyle Long, Xavier Rhodes, and Keenan Allen have combined for nine Pro Bowl appearances and have been among the best in the league at their respective positions.

2014 winner: Trade down package by a country mile

Justin Gilbert never lived up to his No. 8 pick status. He spent two years with the Browns, was traded to the Steelers in 2016, was suspended for a year in 2017 for violating the league’s substance abuse policy, and never returned to the NFL. All four of the players drafted after Gilbert have gone on to have much better careers, particularly Brandin Cooks and Jason Verrett (when healthy).

2015 winner: Trade down package

Vic Beasley had a phenomenal 2016 All-Pro season with 15.5 sacks and 11 tackles for loss, but he’s been pretty average since then with just 18 sacks over his last 56 games. On the whole, Shaq Thompson’s career has been better than Beasley’s and Shaq has a much brighter future. Now throw in the fact that Nelson Agholor and Chris Conley developed into perfectly serviceable players, and the trade down package is the clear winner.

2016 winner: No. 8 pick

Jack Conklin is a 26 year-old-left tackle coming off his second All-Pro season. The only more valuable asset than a young, elite left tackle is a young, elite quarterback. That said, Cody Whitehair is a Pro Bowl center in his own right who was among PFF’s Top 25 interior offensive lineman going into the 2020 season. Both Darron Lee and Artie Burns have been capable when healthy, but the trade down package isn’t worth passing up on a franchise left tackle in Conklin.

2017 winner: It’s a toss-up

Can we call this one a tie for now and re-visit this in four more years? Look, I love Christian McCaffrey. He’s my favorite Panther. He has been electric with the ball in his hands from Day 1 and he can make even mediocre Panthers teams fun to watch.

Meanwhile, Garett Bolles came along slowly over his first three seasons but was a dominant left tackle in 2020. PFF gave him an elite 90.1 rating and Denver rewarded him with a four-year, $68 million deal. Left tackle is so much more valuable of a position than running back (though we can’t just pigeonhole CMC as a “running back” because he’s also such a devastating receiver out of the backfield) that Bolles could end up the more valuable player if he can sustain 2020’s elite production for the next several seasons. He could also still turn out to be a one-year wonder.

Giving these players another couple of years could also allow us to better evaluate Jabrill Peppers who was inconsistent over his first three seasons, then took a big step forward in 2020 with 91 tackles, 11 passes defended, and 2.5 sacks. If he develops into a solid long-term player, that could tip the scales toward the trade down package. Let’s put a pin in this one for now.

The summary

Between 2011 and 2017 the trade down package has clearly been better than the No. 8 alone, but this is a limited analysis. I’ve only looked at these five particular picks and I don’t know if, for example, No. 7 picks have outperformed, say, the No. 19, No. 24, No. 55, and No. 75 players. I’m not ambitious enough to find out, either.

But when it comes to the plethora of good picks the Panthers could realistically acquire by moving back to later in the first round, history has shown this would be a better move than hanging on to No. 8.

If a franchise-changing talent isn’t available at No. 8, I’ll have my real estate agent reach out to Scott Fitterer and make sure he sees which properties are available at Trade Down Island.

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How the Panthers can trade down in the first round (TWICE!) and win the draft (Part 2) - Cat Scratch Reader
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