How the Panthers can trade down in the first round (TWICE!) and win the draft (Part 1) - Cat Scratch Reader

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Assuming a franchise quarterback doesn’t fall to Carolina at No. 8 and the team rolls with Sam Darnold in 2021, Carolina will have plenty of flexibility to do what I advocate every year: Smartly trade down!

As the benevolent dictator of Trade Down Island I’ve shared TDI’s constitution before which outlines how to win the draft by effectively trading down. It starts by having the humility to admit the draft is just educated guesswork and no team can beat the market over time, so the more good draft picks, the better. Smartly trading down in Rounds 1-2 to get additional picks in Rounds 2-4 still allows good talent evaluators to potentially land a first round Pro Bowler later in the first round while having a couple more picks in the early rounds to land additional starters.

Smartly trading down also means knowing when to not trade down. For example, if a potential franchise cornerstone like left tackle Penei Sewell is available at No. 8, just take Penei Sewell! But unless there’s a near sure-fire All-Pro and franchise cornerstone available at No. 8 (which Sewell appears to be, but there are no guarantees) then this is the perfect year to trade down.

Ideally, I’d love to see Carolina trade down twice in the first round.

Based on recent trade history, here’s the projected haul the Panthers could get by smartly trading down twice in Round 1. In the two examples below, the first trade would be moving from No. 8 down to the mid-first round (No. 12 or No. 14), then trading back again from the mid-first round to the late first round (No. 25 or No. 27).

Going from No. 8 to No. 12, then from No. 12 to No. 25

In 2018 the Buccaneers traded the No. 7 pick (which is close enough to the Panthers No. 8) along with a seventh rounder to the Bills for No. 12, No. 53, and No. 56. After that hypothetical transaction the Panthers would have the No. 12 overall pick. During the 2017 draft, the Browns traded No. 12 for No. 25 and a 2018 first round pick.

If the Panthers received similar value by trading down from No. 8 to No. 12, and then again from No. 12 to No. 25, here’s the net of what they would end up with in the first three rounds this year and next year:

• No. 25 (traded down)
• No. 39 (original pick)
• No. 53 (new pick)
• No. 56 (new pick)
• No. 73 (original pick)
• 2022 first rounder (new pick)

Going from No. 8 to No. 15, then from No. 15 to No. 27

Here’s another recent example that shows what Carolina could get by trading down twice in the first round. In 2016 the Browns traded No. 8 and a sixth-round pick to the Titans for No. 15, No. 76, and a 2017 second rounder. If Carolina now had pick No. 15 after trading back seven spots, they could then do what the Packers did in 2018 when they traded No. 14 (close enough to No. 15) for No. 27, No. 147 (fifth round), and a 2019 first rounder.

So if the Panthers traded down from No. 8 to No. 15, and then again from No. 15 to No. 27, here’s the net of what they would end up with in the first three rounds:

• No. 27 (traded down)
• No. 39 (original pick)
• No. 73 (original pick)
• No. 76 (new pick)
• 2022 first rounder (new pick)
• 2022 second rounder (new pick)

Averaging it out

In the first example the end result of trading down twice was the No. 25 pick along with another first rounder and two second round picks.

The second example yielded the No. 27 pick plus an additional first, second, and third round pick.

Whether the new picks acquired are for this year’s draft or next year’s isn’t that relevant in the long term. The quality of players available in the late first round this year will be similar to late first round picks next year, and the same is true for rounds two and three. The Panthers are going through a long-term rebuild. Let’s not tie ourselves up in knots over the difference of players drafted this year or 12 months from now.

Let’s now average those out those two scenarios and give the Panthers the following hypothetical new picks by trading down twice: No. 25, No. 56, No. 76 this year, and a 2022 first-round pick which we’ll peg at No. 20 since it’s rare for teams who will likely be bad to part with next year’s first rounder. In addition to these hypothetical new draft picks plus Carolina’s existing picks, here are the names of some of the players who might be available at those draft spots (per my Ultimate Big Board) in Rounds 1-3:

• No. 25 (traded down) - LB Zaven Collins or DT Christian Barmore
• No. 39 (original pick) - LT Dillon Radunz, LT Alex Leatherwood, or LT Samuel Cosmi
• No. 56 (new pick) - CB Elijah Molden or TE Brevin Jordan
• No. 73 (original pick) - G Trey Smith or DT Tommy Togiai
• No. 76 (new pick) - CB Ifeatu Melifonwu or LB Pete Warner
• 2022 first rounder pegged at No. 20 (new pick) - Next year’s equivalent of CB Jaycee Horn, S Trevor Moehrig, or WR Rashod Bateman

Frankly, I love this approach for a rebuilding team like the Panthers, especially with how deep this year’s draft appears to be at left tackle. Even at No. 39 Carolina should have multiple options to address this position of need, including Radunz, Leatherwood, or Cosmi. Again, I’m not saying Carolina should pass up Penei Sewell if he’s available at No. 8, but I’m all for getting the best player available at No. 25 while taking extra bites at the apple with new picks at No. 56 and No. 76 this year, plus an additional first round pick next year!

This is the mindset of living on Trade Down Island. New general manager Scott Fitterer lived the TDI lifestyle during his tenure with the Seattle Seahawks and it sounds like coach Matt Rhule has at least a timeshare somewhere on the island. This two-minute YouTube clip is music to my ears as both Fitterer and Rhule talk about smartly trading down. At a high level, if they are “convicted” (Rhule’s word) that a franchise cornerstone is available early in the draft, they’ll take him. But if they aren’t completely sold, it doesn’t sound like they will hesitate to move down to the end of the first round and stockpile other valuable picks.

In Part 2 I’ll break down some actual draft history of players take at No. 8 (Carolina’s current pick) versus those taken at No. 20, No. 25, No. 56, and No. 76 (Carolina’s hypothetical haul by trading down twice) to further illustrate the joys of living on Trade Down Island.

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How the Panthers can trade down in the first round (TWICE!) and win the draft (Part 1) - Cat Scratch Reader
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