Zone A real-time LMP hits 13-month high
Dual-fuel generation surpasses nuclear
Zone J August rolls off curve 17% below 2019
Houston — Above-normal temperatures in July drove up New York Independent System Operator cooling demand, leading to a average of a 31% month-on-month jump in wholesale power prices as well as an 18% jump in spot gas prices.
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Register NowNYISO peakload climbed 25% from June to average 26.449 GW in July as New York City had 47.5% more cooling-degree days than normal and 7.3% more than 2019, according to US National Weather Service. New York City average temperatures were 3.5 degrees above normal for July at 80 degrees Fahrenheit.
Generation mix changes
To accommodate the increase in load, NYISO total generation rose 18.6% month on month to average 447.183 GWh/d in July, according to ISO data.
Dual fuel generation moved into the lead fuel source at 31.5% of the total mix, an increase of 4.5 percentage points month on month, while natural-gas fired generation accounted for 25.1% of the fuel mix, up 4.5 percentage points year on year, according to ISO data.
Nuclear-powered generation fell out of the top spot in the generation stack, decreasing 5.3 percentage points year on year and down 5.5 percentage points on month to an average of 22.8% for July.
Hydro-powered generation sank 3.3 percentage points month on month to make up nearly 17% of the total mix for July.
Power prices increase with load
The rising temperatures led to more people cranking air conditioning units, which in turn pushed up power prices.
NYISO Zone A West on-peak day-ahead locational marginal prices climbed 33.6% month on month to average $36.22/MWh in July, as on-peak real-time LMP spiked 41.6% to average $36.09/MWh, the biggest month-on-month movements across the ISO footprint, according to NYISO data.
Zone A on-peak day-ahead LMPs reached as high as $52.25/MWh on July 10, an eight-month high, while the on-peak real-time LMP reached as high as $95.30/MWh on July 9, the highest level in more than a year.
NYISO Zone J on-peak day-ahead LMP averaged $29.59/MMBtu in July, a drop of 17.7% year on year, as on-peak real-time shed 16.5% year on year, the biggest on-year movements.
Zone J on-peak day-ahead LMP reached as high as $44.33/MWh on July 20, a six-month high.
Transco Zone 6 New York spot gas prices averaged $1.688/MMBtu in July, an increase of 18.1% month on month, but a drop of 22.3% year on year, according to S&P Global Platts pricing data. Transco Zone 6 spot prices reached a five-month high of $1.890/MMBtu on July 28.
Forward curve trending lower
The power forwards curve continued to trend lower than 2019 levels despite the three-month outlook temperature forecast indicating greater probability for above-normal temperatures, according to NWS.
NYISO Zone J on-peak August averaged $29.40/MWh, a decrease of 21.3% from where the 2019 package averaged a year ago, according to S&P Global Platts. The 2020 package rolled off the curve at $28.45/MWh, 17% below where the 2019 package ended.
For perspective, the 2020 August package has trended lower than the October 2019 package all year.
The trend continued down the curve.
NYISO Zone A on-peak September averaged $31.59/MWh, 20.6% lower than the 2019 package averaged this time last year, while NYISO Zone G on-peak October averaged $20.18/MWh, down 23.7% from there the 2019 package averaged a year ago.
Power forwards followed gas forwards lower.
Transco Zone 6 New York August averaged $1.633/MMBtu, down 23.2% from where the 2019 contract averaged a year ago. The 2020 contract rolled off the curve at $1.706/MMBtu, nearly 13% lower than where the 2019 contract ended.
The September contract was down 29% from the 2019 contract a year ago to average $1.386/MMBtu, while the October contract was down 24% to average $1.490/MMBtu.
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NYISO Tracker: Warmer weather, higher load pull up power, gas prices - S&P Global
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