DEHNER, JR.
Jay Morrison, my colleague at The Athletic, has got that great "Send 'Em Home Happy Stat." It's incredible. Since 1993 when they've had a losing record, the Bengals are 17-1 in their last home games of the year. And 12 straight.
I know we joke about the lack of momentum from one season to another when you look at history, but if you actually win two of the last three and intimidate Pittsburgh and Baltimore with everything on the line, that's real. I think that has real carryover. Because that's in the division, learning how to do it with the nucleus no matter how much you churn the roster. I think it's massive in that regard even though they would lose spots in the draft.
I hate to beat the drum of the obvious, but they're not equipped to win this one without winning the turnover battle. They just don't have the firepower. They're going to have to either draw even and it's a turnover that's more impactful than one on the other side, or they've got to outright win it. I think there's a false confidence coming from the first game stopping the run against them because Lamar really wasn't himself at that point and he has that MVP roll going right now.
It's a real test of whether the defense can stop Lamar. Before Sam Hubbard's play last week, it looked like the dreadful defense of the middle of the season that was a liability. It's a good test for them against a good quarterback after playing a string of backups and bottom half of the league offenses.
THE EDGE: Lamar is on a roll and I don't think the Bengals are going to have a dominant turnover day, but I think they'll hang with them. The power of the "Send 'Em Home Happy," stat lives. RAVENS, 24-17
I think it's a great litmus test to see where they are. You caught Pittsburgh in a down time on a wild night with a wild game plan, getting the turnovers and made it work. You caught a Houston team that's not very good. Nobody should apologize for winning in the NFL. But this is the real litmus test. This is against a team playing for something and playing really well.
Lamar was hurt last time, which is why he didn't run it very well. He was playing on one leg, so his part of the run game was pretty much null and void. He's back doing things, throwing the ball well. It's a great litmus test to see where you are going into the offseason. There are holes. You're missing multiple key parts. But are you closer than you were three, four, five weeks ago? I think you can turn this around quickly.
I don't know if I believe in momentum into the next season. I've seen this script play out before. But look what Miami did last year and look where they are this year. And it can happen really quickly. In this league, you're never that far away if you've got the quarterback and enough other parts and you've got a couple of offseasons to fix things that need fixing. You really aren't that far away. This one tells me, are you still light years away or are you closing the gap and that doesn't mean you have to win this game. It just can't be as ugly as it was last time.
THE EDGE: I think the Bengals play them well. I think they've got a little confidence. That goes a long way. The fact you've won some games and put some points on the board and maybe if you have some breaks go your way. They've got the turnovers they hadn't been getting. It's contagious. I think they hang around, but Baltimore has something to play for and they're not limping in here. They've got the main guy healthy and he's never lost to them. RAVENS, 27-21
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