June curtailments totaled 206.411 GWh: Cal-ISO
2020 curtailments averaging 161% higher year on year
SP15 on-peak LMP averaging 37.5% lower than 2019
Houston — California Independent System Operator wind and solar curtailments in June climbed 325% year on year, even as curtailments dipped about 20% month on month as rising summer temperatures increased power load demand leading to more renewable generation consumption, according to grid operator data.
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June wind and solar curtailments across the ISO's footprint totaled 206.411 GWh, the highest June level on record, according to Cal-ISO data. Curtailments reached an all-time peak in April at 318.444 GWh, nearly 25% higher than any other month in ISO history.
"Some of the causes have been ongoing, such as increased renewable penetration, seasonal effect and congestion," Cal-ISO spokeswoman Anne Gonzalez said about what is causing more curtailments this year. "Other factors include weather, time of week and day, transmission outages and hydroelectric conditions."
Spot price and generation impacts
Cal-ISO peakload averaged 31.965 GW in June, up 13% month on month and an increase of nearly 2% from year-ago levels, according to ISO data. The rise in load is from warmer weather driving up cooling demand, as well as continued stages of reopening across the state following stay-home orders from the coronavirus.
While more demand pushed up SP15 on-peak day-ahead locational marginal prices 38.6% month on month in June, prices were still about 6% lower than last June, averaging $22.02/MWh as increased renewable penetration on the grid tends to lead to lower power prices.
Both Cal-ISO wind and solar generation output rose in June.
Cal-ISO solar output averaged about 110.808 GWh/d in June, an increase of 7% month on month and up nearly 1% year on year, according to Cal-ISO data. Wind output averaged 64.832 GWh/d in June, an increase of 21.3% from May and up 5.6% from year-ago levels.
In contrast, hydro outlook remained weak in June at an average of 58.155 GWh/d, down 8.8% month on month and a drop of 47% from year-ago levels, according to Cal-ISO data.
"Hydroelectric conditions are below normal this year, which generally keeps curtailments lower, as less must-run hydro production is exacerbating system oversupply conditions," Gonzalez said.
Coronavirus pandemic impact
Stay-home restrictions and business closures due to the coronavirus pandemic helped keep demand for power generation low throughout spring. Commercial demand pulls more power from the grid than residential load, so any increase in residential load with more people staying home was offset by the strong decline in commercial load.
"While state pandemic restrictions may be adding to the incidence of curtailments due to reduced loads, we can't isolate the amount of additional curtailment caused by the restrictions," Gonzalez said.
Future outlook
Wind and solar curtailments have totaled 16.321 GWh so far in July, nearly 30% more than for the same timeframe in July 2019, according to ISO data.
"In the past, curtailments typically reached about 2-3% [of production capability] over the year, sometimes 4-5% during spring conditions. This spring, curtailments exceeded 5% of solar production capability," Gonzales said. "As the weather heats up in July, we would expect some reductions in curtailments from spring levels."
There is a greater probability for below-normal temperatures across California in the 6-10 day temperature outlook, while the three-month outlook indicates greater chances for above-normal temperatures, according to the US National Weather Service.
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Cal-ISO curtailments fall in June on increased power load demand, hot weather - S&P Global
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