"Gradual development of this system is still expected, and it will likely become a tropical or subtropical storm on Saturday when it is located near the northwestern Bahamas," the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said.
This would be the sixth year in a row that a storm will have formed before the start of hurricane season on June 1.
If this system in the Atlantic does get named, it will be Arthur. However, it may classify more as a sub-tropical storm.
"A subtropical storm is a hybrid between a regular area of low pressure, which has a cold core, and pure tropical system, which has warm core," said CNN meteorologist Dave Hennen.
Regardless of if it gets a name or not, the storm will continue to bring periods of heavy rainfall to parts of the Florida Keys, southeastern Florida, and in the Bahamas, through Saturday.
Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are possible across this region.
While the system has been mostly unorganized, it is expected to move into an area that is a much more favorable environment. This will allow the storm to become more organized and strengthen.
A US Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Saturday to determine how organized the storm is becoming and the strength, the NHC said.
If and when the storm forms, most forecast models keep the storm just off the southeastern coast before curving it back out farther into the Atlantic.
However, "dangerous surf conditions and rip currents are possible along portions of the southeast US coast this weekend and early next week," the NHC said.
The tropics are heating up around the world
Areas of the Pacific Ocean have had an interesting start to the tropical season. On April 25, Tropical Depression ONE-E formed south of Mexico's Baja California region, marking the first tropical depression on record in the month of April for the Eastern Pacific Ocean.
This is quite the contrast to the Western Pacific, which just had its eighth latest start to a tropical season since 1950.
The first storm of the year is poised to develop in the Bay of Bengal this weekend and will likely be quite strong when it impacts India and Bangladesh next week.
While these season's have already started, the Atlantic doesn't officially begin until June 1.
The official Atlantic seasonal forecast doesn't come from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration until May 21. But there are over a dozen early forecasts already published.
There is a strong consensus in the forecasts across the industry indicating the Atlantic is in for an active season.
Arthur is just the start to what is expected to be a long season.
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May 16, 2020 at 02:12PM
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Arthur, the first named storm of the hurricane season, is likely to form today off the coast of Florida - CNN
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